Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 0.035879 0.041732 0.047881 0.054790 0.062307 0.070207 0.079108
2025-03-23 0.026777 0.035215 0.044736 0.056117 0.069199 0.083626 0.100599
2025-03-30 0.020647 0.030487 0.042330 0.057245 0.075156 0.095639 0.120501
2025-04-06 0.017269 0.028227 0.042154 0.060437 0.083135 0.109787 0.142861
2025-04-13 0.013218 0.024262 0.039167 0.059595 0.085811 0.117391 0.157398
2025-04-20 0.011743 0.023522 0.040126 0.063573 0.094336 0.132013 0.180379
2025-04-27 0.008802 0.020033 0.036865 0.061604 0.095008 0.136788 0.191306
2025-05-04 0.007688 0.019196 0.037197 0.064370 0.101745 0.149116 0.211560
2025-05-11 0.005968 0.016958 0.035165 0.063608 0.103644 0.155217 0.224041
2025-05-18 0.004968 0.015798 0.034622 0.064847 0.108160 0.164649 0.240729
2025-05-25 0.004042 0.014557 0.033787 0.065535 0.111847 0.172979 0.256043
2025-06-01 0.002618 0.011776 0.030017 0.061495 0.108688 0.172123 0.259462
2025-06-08 0.001545 0.009370 0.026681 0.058095 0.106624 0.173126 0.265957
2025-06-15 0.001208 0.008845 0.026790 0.060258 0.112773 0.185455 0.287622
2025-06-22 0.000883 0.008159 0.026486 0.061703 0.117895 0.196483 0.307755
2025-06-29 0.000739 0.008057 0.027353 0.065141 0.126065 0.211816 0.333771
2025-07-06 0.000425 0.006908 0.025801 0.064288 0.127660 0.218007 0.347631
2025-07-13 0.000374 0.007034 0.027095 0.068471 0.137047 0.235196 0.376387
2025-07-20 0.000163 0.005788 0.024991 0.066410 0.136648 0.238552 0.386496
2025-07-27 0.000118 0.005673 0.025600 0.069312 0.144068 0.253062 0.411822
2025-08-03 0.000043 0.004865 0.024284 0.068513 0.145553 0.259075 0.425598
2025-08-10 0.000017 0.004507 0.024091 0.069812 0.150396 0.269942 0.446079
2025-08-17 0.000004 0.004085 0.023627 0.070533 0.154284 0.279441 0.464730